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How consistent and reliable the H1-H4 MACD system is?

USD/JPY

When author presents «his» system to the public he usually selects the examples when system wins and hides the cases when it fails. Let's try honestly estimate the MACD trading approach in assumption that we simply apply some basic rules and exclude our experience, intuition etc.
  1. Trade in the direction of the trend and ignore contra-trend signals.
  2. Set 1:1.5 risk/reward ratio, S/L= 50pips, T/P= 75pips on USD/JPY.
  1. The price is below MA20, MACD is negative -- they are signs of downtrend. We accept the Down Valley signal and earn 75 pips.
  2. We don't know if this is a reversal or correction and stay away
  3. The same signs of downtrend as in A are available, we go short and earn another 75 pips.
  4. Ignore contra-trend signal
  5. Go short, +75 pips.
  6. We don't know if this is a reversal or correction and stay away
  7. MA20 touched and crossed the price, MACD crossed zero line. It does mean the downtrend end. Since this moment we will accept both bullish and bearish signals because market became ranging. Go short and win +75 pips.
  8. Go long, +75 pips.
  9. Go long, -50 loss.
  10. Go short, +75 pips.
  11. Go long, +75 pips.
  12. Go short, +75 pips
  13. Go long, +75 pips.
For less than three weeks we have earned 9*75 -50= 620 pips. Of course in real life everything not so good and smooth, but even the half of mentioned profit is enough to consider the MACD trading method worthwhile.

Now, as of March 30, 2007, the USD/JPY market is ranging. I trade both up and down with SL=50 and T/P=50 pips.