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Date, time |
Action |
Comment |
Strategy |
Result |
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Fri, Aug 8 2008, 06:36 GMT
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Buy 1.5235; stop below 1.5175 (-60) |
Shock, horror as we trade below the lower edge of the range since March. This is seen as a much-needed clear-out which should eventually turn into some sort of ‘spike low’. The Euro is more oversold than it has been since December 2005 after four consecutive weekly declines. For this morning expect prices to try and base around the 1.5200 area, then wait and watch for a reversal pattern if not today then over the coming week.
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Possibly attempt small longs at 1.5235; stop below 1.5175. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5315 for 1.5350 short term and then 1.5400.
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-60 |
Thu, Aug 7 2008, 07:11 GMT
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Buy at 1.5445; stop below 1.5275 (-170) |
Interesting to note that as we approach the lower edge of the range since March consensus opinion is that the Euro has peaked already. In yesterday’s Monthly Reuters FX Poll all sixty analysts bar two
(one of which is ourselves) though the single currency would move towards 1.4400 in 12 months’ time. This seems a rather crowded, one-sided view and being contrarian we welcome this shift.
For this morning expect prices to try and base above the 1.5350 area, pushing up towards 1.5525 late this afternoon.
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Attempt longs at 1.5445; stop below 1.5275. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5525 for 1.5600 short term and then 1.5750. |
-170 !!! |
| Wed, Aug 6 2008, 06:39 GMT |
Buy at 1.5500; stop below 1.5400 (-100) |
Now trading below the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and below the middle of the range since March. Big deal! For this morning expect prices to try and hold above the 1.5450 area, pushing up towards 1.5650 late this afternoon. |
Buy at 1.5500; stop below 1.5400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5650 for 1.5700 short term and then 1.5750. |
-100 |
| Tue, Aug 5 2008, 06:39 GMT | Buy at 1.5540; stop below 1.5500
(-40) |
A potential small ‘rounded bottom’ against 1.5514, the middle of the range since March. Not very exciting but with a little luck it might add a tiny amount of bullish momentum for a bounce to 1.5700. |
Buy at 1.5540; stop below 1.5500. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5650 for 1.5700 short term and then 1.5750. |
-40 |
| Fri, Aug 1 2008, 06:37 GMT | Buy at 1.5565; stop below 1.5500
(-65) |
Looking for direction as we squeeze higher yesterday only to dip below the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ today. Expect more nervous intra-day moves roughly between 1.5525 and 1.5625 this morning and probably a
short squeeze late today.
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Buy at 1.5565; stop below 1.5500. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5650 for 1.5700 short term and then 1.5750. |
-65 |
| Thu, Jul 31 2008, 06:22 GMT | Buy at 1.5585; stop below 1.5500
(-85) |
Trying to hold against the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ as many are impressed by the strength of the US dollar. Expect another basing attempt against here this morning for a rally to the top of the cloud at 1.5650 late today. |
Buy at 1.5585; stop below 1.5500. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5620 for 1.5650 short term and then 1.5750.
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-85 |
| Wed, Jul 30 2008, 06:22 GMT | Buy at 1.5565; stop below 1.5500 (-65) |
Dropping further than we had allowed for towards the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect it to try and base against here this morning. |
Attempt longs at 1.5565; stop below 1.5500. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5650 to cover longs between 1.5950 and 1.6020. |
+85 |
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Total P/L amount |
-435 |
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